Economic weakness plus tighter monetary policy should push inflation below expectations next year, said DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach.
A combination of U.S. economic weakness plus tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is likely to push inflation below the expectations of many forecasters next year, at least temporarily, said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital.
Investors shifted into wait-and-see mode ahead of Tuesday’s consumer-price index for November, as optimism about the 2023 inflation outlook emerged in a New York Fed survey. Meanwhile, traders of derivatives-like instruments known as fixings expect the annual headline CPI rate for November to come in at 7.2%— or below the 7.3% median estimate of economists.
On Monday, Gundlach said 2022 will be remembered as the year in which the Fed went from being “almost scared to raise interest rates” to delivering a series of aggressive hikes. With the Fed widely expected to hike once again on Wednesday, Gundlach said he would put the odds of a rate cut at some point at “greater than 75%.” He also said he sees the fair value of the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y at between 2% to 2.5%, versus Monday’s level of 3.
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