Some floods are so severe they rarely strike more than once a century, but rising seas could threaten coastal communities with yearly extreme floods by the end of the 21st century. Most coastal communities will encounter 100-year floods annually by the end of the century, even under a moderate sc
A recent study indicates that by the end of the century, most coastal regions could face 100-year floods annually, even if CO2 emissions peak by 2040. These severe flooding events, based on past records, are becoming more frequent due to climate change.
A 100-year flood is an extreme water level that has a 1% chance of being exceeded in any given year and is based on historical data. Despite the name, 100-year floods can strike the same area multiple years in a row or not at all within a century. However, a new study finds that those historical trends will no longer provide an accurate outlook for future floods.
The researchers used data from more than 300 tide gauges around the world to conduct trend analyses and estimate future extreme sea levels under two carbon emission scenarios outlined by theif carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise through the end of the century, and if carbon dioxide emissions reach their peak by 2040 and then decline. In both scenarios, they found that sea level rise will lead to an increase in 100-year flood events in most of the locations they studied.
Previous studies relied on stationary estimates of extreme sea levels to predict 100-year floods, but this study used non-stationary methods and found that the shift in extreme sea levels will not be uniform for many tide-gauge locations. While the mean sea level is rising, the outcome won’t be the same everywhere. Higher latitudes may experience a drop in sea levels as heavy ice sheets melt and the land underneath rises. Alternatively, regions like the Gulf of Mexico are experiencing rates of sea level rise that are faster than the global average because the land is gradually sinking. According to Moftakhari, coastal communities will require unique solutions based on local information to match their needs.
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