'The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity.'
"The panel turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80 percent of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside," Survey Chair Gregorysaid in a press release."The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity.
The World Trade Organization slashed its global growth forecasts last week, saying that trade tensions, along with cyclical and structural factors, were dragging down estimates. The same day thereleased projections, data from the Institute of Supply Management showed that manufacturing declined to its lowest level since June 2009, prompting concerns. Two days later, a report on the service sector showed that activity had fallen to the lowest level in three years.
Although Trump touted the economy, growing evidence has contradicted his narrative about the impact of the China trade war. Consumers and businesses are paying the costs of the increased tariffs, and trade uncertainty has contributed to slowing global growth. Members of the Trump administration will be meeting with Chinese officials in Washington later this week to discuss the long-running trade war and seek to negotiate a settlement.
President Donald Trump talks to journalists on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One and traveling to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on October 4.
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