A welcome reception for Sen. Kamala Harris and rising enthusiasm for Joe Biden mark President Donald Trump's challenges in the 2020 election, as do two realities on the ground: just 14% of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the coronavirus pandemic is under control, and two-thirds
say the economy is in bad shape -- the most since October 2014, when voters reacted with a vengeance.
Trump is the only one in the group to be seen unfavorably by most Americans, 56% in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. He's seen strongly unfavorably rather than strongly favorably by a 17-point margin, 46-29% -- about double the strongly negative margin for Biden, 8 points, 34-26%.
Compared with community-level economic impacts, fewer, 29%, report severe economic impacts of the pandemic on their personal finances. That rises in some groups, to about four in 10 Black people, Hispanics, lower-income and younger adults and, notably, politically independent women. Independents can be swing voters.
Indeed, in a statistical analysis called regression, including controls for partisanship, ideology and demographic variables, discontent with the national economy is a significant independent predictor of vote preferences, as is worry about catching the coronavirus -- both negatively for Trump. It's an open question whether or not Harris, with her prosecutorial background, can offer Biden assistance on perceptions of handling crime. Informed that she's a former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, 32% say they have a more favorable opinion of her, 16% less favorable.
Critically, Biden has a 17-point lead among independents, 54-37%, potentially a swing group that Trump won by 4 points in 2016. Whites divide closely, 50-45%, Trump-Biden, compared with Trump +18 points in March; Biden's +45 points among racial and ethnic minorities. And men have moved toward the Democrat; they now divide 51-43%, Biden-Trump. Biden is +16 points among women.
Biden, to be sure, has his own set of risks. Among registered voters, strong enthusiasm for his candidacy has grown especially among whites , people age 40 and older and mainline Democrats . It's notably lower among racial and ethnic minorities, independents and younger adults -- groups in which turnout can lag.
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