Even once the world picks up again, the basics of the energy business will reflect the legacy of the 2020 pandemic
In North Dakota, 55 rigs were working the Bakken shale formation when the year began. Today just 14 are. Wells producing 550,000 barrels a day have been shut in — turned off, in effect — in the state.
There has been some recovery from April’s dismal numbers. The futures price for West Texas Intermediate is at nearly $30 a barrel. A few dollars more, Ness said, and some shut-in wells may restart.And that might require a price back in the $50-to-$60 range, to regain the confidence of investors and banks.
If there is a sharp recovery late this year or early next year, analysts expect the price of oil will meet or surpass Ness’s $50 tipping point. The glut that helped send prices tumbling this spring has led to so much production being cut that, once the surplus is gone, producers may have to scramble to meet demand again.
And public policy on electricity — almost worldwide — strongly favors renewables and discourages coal. Bruno Brunetti, head of global power planning for S&P Global Platts, pointed out in a webinar that coal-burning plants tend to be older and that any idled now because of the drop in demand are unlikely to be restarted if the shutdown extends for several months. Most of the world’s nuclear plants are also heading toward retirement age, he said.
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