In Monday’s session, the USD is trading weak against most of its rivals, mainly driven by a slight consolidation and a risk-positive market environmen
t. On the other hand, the European Central Bank's hawkish rhetoric is gaining more ground while markets still asses Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday., Chair Powell didn’t commit to another hike but pointed out that the economy hasn’t cooled down as expected and that as long as inflation doesn't give in, the Federal Reserve will maintain rates at a restrictive stance.
That said, US bond yields are pulling back on Monday, although they maintain elevated levels. The rate for the 2-year bond stands at 5.05%, whereas the rates for the 5-year and 10-year bonds are at 4.41% and 4.22%, respectively. In addition, the USD measured by the DXY index slightly retreated but still traded at its highest level since early June, above the 104.00 zone.
In the meantime, according to the World Interest Rates Probabilities tool, markets are currently discounting a 45% probability of a 25bps increase in the upcoming September 14, 2023 meeting. Moving forward, the likelihood of a 25bps hike stands at 66% in October, followed by a 75% chance of a similar increase in the December meeting. This anticipated rate hike trajectory would result in a target rate of 5%.
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