Europe’s response has four pillars: boosting gas-storage levels, diversifying energy sources, encouraging demand reduction and rationing
was on track to “reach and exceed” the goal of an 80% fill rate by November 1st. Fresh modelling done by a group of German think-tanks led by the Kiel Institute suggests that Germany could cope this winter even if Russia cut off all gas in July. In April, when less was in storage, it thought this impossible.
But not all countries have stored gas equally. Those at or below 50% today would suffer badly in a cut-off, and all would suffer if winter is abnormally cold. Mr Stoppard reckons that a cold winter could add up to 25bcm of extra demand. Even countries that scrape by this winter would be in a terrible position come spring. imports have surged dramatically. High European prices have lured tankers away from Asia.
Then comes demand response. High gas prices have already cut some demand. Leslie Palti-Guzman of Leviaton, an energy-data firm, estimates that industrial consumption in Europe has dropped by 20bcm in the past few months. German industry, which depends on cheap gas and accounts for 37% of the country’s total use, will be hit hard, she thinks. Simon Müller of Agora Energiewende, a German think-tank, wishes his government had got serious about conservation back in March.
Finally there is rationing of energy. Germany talks openly about this dread prospect, but most countries have shunned it. Now the commission is preparing a “crisis-management framework”. Plans already exist for helping neighbours in a brief emergency, but not for one that could be region-wide and last for months. One proposal would have the commission co-ordinate gas-demand reductions in all member states.
Xi Nan of Rystad Energy, a research firm, agrees. The commission’s attempts at co-ordination will be undercut by a chaotic market response, she worries. For example, some European countries and companies refused Russia’s demand to be paid in roubles for energy exports, but others caved in. Europe does not have an integrated gas market; every country has its own policies. These are likely to diverge if gas is cut off, she reckons, and a Lehman-style crisis is not impossible.’s common market.
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