The combination of plentiful liquefied natural gas and warm weather is a nightmare for Vladimir Putin. Yet Europe is a long way from the end of its energy crisis
the Spanish coast, a number of slow-moving metallic domes emerged on the skyline. They were tankers, pregnant with superchilled liquefied natural gas and waiting for delivery at busy “regasification” terminals, where their liquid fuel is turned to gas before being transferred across the continent. Iberia has the biggest facilities in Europe, but congestion is building elsewhere, too. The amount ofoff European shores has hit 1.2m tonnes, according to Kpler, a data firm, up from 140,000 in August.
In this scenario, the West retaliates by giving its oil price cap more bite, perhaps threatening Western infringers with huge penalties, toughening checks and lowering the cap. To counter the counter-attack, Russia persuadesand its allies, a group of 23 countries that produces 40% of the world’s crude, to cut their monthly production target by 1m b/d, on top of a 2m b/d cut already implemented in October.
Then Russia decides to wreck Europe’s gas-import infrastructure. This possibility, once unthinkable, has become rather less so after saboteurs bombed Nord Stream last month. Our extreme scenario assumes that Russia manages to stop flows through Norway’s two largest pipelines, robbing Europe of another 55 bcm in yearly supply. This would be quite a move.