A team of researchers tried something that's never been done as a conflict rages. Instead of trying to calculate the toll of war in the moment, they looked forward. What's the reaction to their study?
This building in Rafah, in southern Gaza, was destroyed by Israeli bombardment in December. amid continuing battles between Israel and Hamas.In the middle of an ongoing conflict, it's difficult — if not impossible —- to understand the true human cost of war.
Even if ongoing ceasefire talks are successful, the humanitarian crisis could claim an additional 6,550 to 11,580 lives by August 6, on top of the 29,000 deaths documented by the Gaza Ministry of Health when the study was published last week.
"We wanted to define scenarios that were realistic and then based on those scenarios project what might happen, giving us some bounds to work with," saysConstructing those two extreme scenarios — ceasefire and escalation — as well as a status quo middle ground, required making a lot of assumptions.
"We have to think about how the health-care system is changing over time," says Spiegel. The situation right now is dire, according to many of the trauma doctors the researchers consulted for the study."If hospitals are functioning, a person with a head or chest wound might survive. But in the current situation, it's likely that he or she will not."
To estimate the possible toll of an outbreak, the team combined existing data on baseline health status, malnutrition, sanitation and vaccination rates with models of infectious disease spread. Such outbreaks would be especially hard on children, the researchers say, who are more vulnerable to infections, especially when they're malnourished.
"We had to be very careful in defining these scenarios," says Igusa. The team decided to base the scenarios on existing casualty data. But the current death toll, largely documented by the Gaza Ministry of Health, is likely an underestimate, as not all deaths are reported. The researchers tried to account for those missing deaths with an independent data source. The U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East closely tracks deaths among their staff of over 13,000 people in Gaza. By comparing death rates from the agency and the Ministry of Health, the team arrived at a better estimate to make their projections, says Igusa.
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