The report does suggest that violence from Mexican cartels against Defense Department personnel working on the southwest border could increase.
President Donald Trump and administration officials have repeatedly claimed terrorists are pouring into the United States through Mexico, suggesting individual members are hiding among the tens of thousands of migrants traveling to the southern border in search of asylum as their countries experience surging gang violence and volatile government institutions.
Dated from mid-April, the Joint Force Land Component Commander Threat Working Group wrote the most likely course of action at the southwest border would be continued border crossings and historic exploitation norms from transnational criminal organizations, referring to the Mexican drug cartels. However, little to no terrorist or foreign intelligence exploitation was expected.
On the evening of January 3, Fox News pundit Sean Hannity asked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the former CIA director, about the latest Homeland Security apprehensions at the southern border: “We’ve been able to apprehend 3,700 people that we have identified as having ties to terror?” The terrorists coming over the border claim was repeated during the same Rose Garden press gaggle by House Minority Whip Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana.
An individual appearing on U.S. government watchlists does not mean the individual is a terrorist; has ties to terrorism or can be criminally charged under terrorism statutes. Instead, these migrants, known as special interest aliens, are added to the list based on an analysis of perceived behavior and travel patterns through “special interest countries,” such as Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Somalia among others, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
An MDCOA assessment is used by both the U.S. military and intelligence communities to estimate what an individual or organization might reasonably do to cause the most negative impact on U.S. operations, but given the presence of other factors, they are not likely to carry out. Earlier this month, Newsweek obtained an operations order which appeared to show the Pentagon was ready to send between 9,000 and 10,000 additional troops to the U.S. border, but a Defense Department spokesman said the document Newsweek obtained was a draft copy and if Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan approved any Homeland Security request, the number of additional troops would range between 300 and 500.
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