A senior official in Ukraine says the authorities in Kyiv are looking into whether a missile brought down a passenger aircraft that crashed in Iran on Wednesday.
WASHINGTON — When a Ukrainian passenger jet crashed outside Tehran, Iran, shortly after taking off on Wednesday morning, speculation immediately turned to the conflict between Iran and the United States. That speculation has now been bolstered by the Ukrainians, with a senior official in Kyiv saying on Thursday the authorities there are looking into whether a missile brought down the aircraft.
While Boeing has had problems with its 737 Max aircraft, the 737-800 line is among the most reliable in the world. Its safety record, says veteran aviation industry analyst Robert W. Mann, is “excellent.” OpsGroup, a consultancy focused on aviation safety, published a blog post that included an analysis of photos that seemed to show the fuselage of PS752 punctured in many places. Internal damage to the craft would not have caused such puncturing.Iran has long worked to bolster its air defenses, in part by purchasing Russian systems called S-300PMU-2, and also by designing defense systems of its own.
The crash of Flight PS752 may be unrelated to the hostilities between the United States and Iran. But aviation experts believe that Iran’s anxiety about an American attack on Tehran could account for what happened to the Ukrainian jet. Even if one engine failed, the other would have continued to power the plane, and the crew would have had time to issue a distress signal. Also, catastrophic engine failure likely wouldn’t turn the entire jet into a fireball, which is what PS52 appeared to become in its final moments.
If the crash were an accident, the cause would likely be more complex than just an engine failure. Aviation accidents often progress according to the Swiss cheese model pioneered by James Reason, in which a number of small, highly improbable errors just happen to coincide, compounding and eventually causing a catastrophe.
Much like Wise, Smith considered an inadvertent shootdown as a plausible explanation, writing that circumstances of the crash were “suspicious.” Representatives for Boeing would not discuss particulars of the accident. In response to a query, the company sent Yahoo News expressing sympathy to the victims’ families and a readiness to work with Ukraine International Airlines on the investigation.
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