Factbox: How many people might die, and why, if China loosens COVID restrictions

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Factbox: How many people might die, and why, if China loosens COVID restrictions
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China has started taking steps to ease its zero-COVID policy, fuelling a mix of relief and worry as the public waits to see the health consequences, and impact on the medical system, of a full-blown exit.

to ease its zero-COVID policy, fuelling a mix of relief and worry as the public waits to see the health consequences, and impact on the medical system, of a full-blown exit.

Researchers have analysed how many deaths the country could see if it pivots to a full reopening, with most pointing to the country's relatively low vaccination rates and lack of herd immunity as some of its most vulnerable spots.

They forecasted that peak demand on intensive care would be more than 15 times capacity, causing roughly 1.5 million deaths, based on worldwide data gathered about the variant's severity. However, the researchers, the lead authors among whom were from Fudan University in China, said the death toll could be reduced sharply if there was a focus on vaccination.China could see 1.3 million to 2.1 million people die if it lifts its zero-COVID policy due to low vaccination and booster rates as well as a lack of hybrid immunity, British scientific information and analytics company AirfinityThe company said it modelled its data on Hong Kong's BA.

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