Falling Coronavirus Testing Numbers Obscures the Reality of the U.S.’s Pandemic Reality
uly was devastating in the U.S. After the country had appeared to flatten the curve in late spring, dailyas the season turned, peaking at 20.5 per 100,000 people on July 18, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University . After some hemming and hawing, many local officials of states seeing resurgences reinstated some of the restrictions, meant to limit the spread of the virus, which had previously been lifted. On the face of it, these decisions seemed to have paid off: Though the U.S.
The reality, however, might not be so rosy. That’s because in that same time frame, testing for COVID-19 in the U.S. has also fallen at practically the same rate. A little over two weeks ago, about 820,000 new tests were being administered per day, according to theAs U.S.
Here’s the thing: if more tests reveal more cases, that, on its own, does not mean a problem doesn’t exist. What would be needed to prove that is a trend showing that as we test more people, the share of positive tests fall. And yet, this has not been the reality at all. In fact, over the past two months, when testing rates increased, so did positive-result rates.
This is a bit complicated, but it’s important, so stay with me here. Most experts who have been watching the pandemic since the start believe that early on, we did not understand the full scale of the spread of the virus—because we were only testing those who got sick. But now we know that many people can contract the virus, show no symptoms whatsoever, then pass it on. When there’s a robust and accessible testing system, even these asymptomatic cases will be found and added to the numbers.
As fall approaches, those in charge at every level—from elected federal officials responsible for the lives of millions to parents responsible for the lives of one or two—are going to have to make nearly impossible decisions about how to live in a post-pandemic, pre-vaccine world. Increased testing in the U.S. will be essential if we want these decisions to be even partially informed.
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