The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates until at least the end o...
BENGALURU - The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who gave a 40 percent chance of at least one rate cut by end-2020.
The change in the Fed’s tone lines up with other major central banks which have recently turned dovish, influenced by increasing concerns of a global economic slowdown and political uncertainties like Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war. Only three economists in the poll predict at least one rate cut this year. But the yield spread between U.S. three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes has already inverted, suggesting a recession is likely in one to two years.
When asked on the probability of a rate cut by end-year, the median of those responding to an additional question was 20 percent. But that jumped to 40 percent for end-2020. Still, nearly a quarter of respondents expect the Fed to raise rates at some point this year on hopes of an economic revival, contradicting the central bank’s latest view.
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