The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle.
A resilient economy and historically low unemployment well over a year since the Fed began one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaigns in history has repeatedly confounded analysts and investors.
have said more tightening is coming, even though they decided to pause the rate hikes at last month's policy meeting. "We do not want to rush ahead and say the fight against inflation has been won, as we have seen head-fakes in the past."The latest "dot-plot" projections from members of the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee suggest the benchmark overnight interest rate will peak at 5.50%-5.75%, but only 19 of 106 economists polled by Reuters forecast it will reach that range.
But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest. The strong labor market is only expected to loosen slightly, nudging up the unemployment rate to 4.0% from the current 3.6% by the end of 2023, the poll showed.
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