“It will take some time, I believe, before we get back to the level of activity that we were at in February, before the pandemic hit.” Here’s Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s outlook for the economy.
"The economy took a huge hit in the spring," Clarida said. "My own personal forecast is that we'll see a rebound in economic activity in the third-quarter data. The course of the economy is going to depend on the course of the virus, and it's a complex picture."for July. Companies added just 167,000 positions for the month after a surge of 4.3 million in June.
Though the number was well below the Wall Street estimate of 1 million, Clarida said he would reserve judgment on the jobs market until seeing Friday's nonfarm payrolls report from the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are expecting growth of nearly 1.5 million after the record 4.8 million in June.
"It will take some time I believe before we get back to the level of activity we were at in February before the pandemic hit," he said. "My baseline view is that we could get back to the level of activity perhaps towards the end of 2021. There are a lot of moving parts with the virus and the global outlook.
"The longer this drags on, the greater risk there is to long-term damage to the economy," Clarida said. "I don't think we're at that point yet."
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