Federal Reserve officials worried about the “substantial likelihood” that there could be more outbreaks of the coronavirus, which could lead to a long and severe recession
The document underscores that Fed officials are highly unsure about how the U.S. economy will fare, citing an "extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks" over the next year or two. They pointed to “several alternative scenarios … that all seemed about equally likely.”If there are additional outbreaks, that “could lead to a protracted period of severely reduced economic activity,” according to the minutes.
“On the other hand, economic activity could recover more quickly if the pandemic subsided enough for households and businesses to become sufficiently confident to relax or modify social-distancing behaviors over the next several months,” the document adds. Fed officials also said actions by Congress, the administration and the central bank itself would “be important in shaping the timing and speed of the U.S. economy’s return to more normal conditions.”
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