There are some signs change may be on the way
to abandon its struggle with covid-19? Judging by recent moves in the markets, you might think so. Rumours that China had assembled a reopening committee inspired a big rally in the country’s shares,
Optimists point out China is taking modest steps to become more open. Its aviation regulator has more than doubled the international flights planned for the next few months, compared with a year ago. China may shorten the quarantine for incoming travellers, and abandon the “circuit-breaker” which suspends airlines that bring in infected passengers. International sports events are returning.
But if China is preparing to exit, preparations will be lengthy. It will first want to suppress small but widespread outbreaks in over 100 cities, including Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong, a province with aas big as South Korea’s. It will then want to keep a lid on infections through winter, so as not to overtax its hospitals. And it will presumably take no big decisions until new officials are installed at the National People’s Congress in March.
The vaccination rate is a “leading indicator” of reopening, reckons Citigroup, another bank. The share of people aged 60 or above who have received a booster shot reached 66% earlier this year, before getting stuck. Some wonder if China is waiting for more effective homegrown jabs before renewing its immunisation drive.
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