The slowdown in manufacturing activity on display in reports from the Federal Reserve banks of New York and Philadelphia was confirmed by a survey from the Richmond Fed indicating that factory activity contracted in the mid-Atlantic region in May.
. The index of general business conditions fell 36.2 points to a negative reading of 11.6 in May. New orders declined and fell into negative territory. Shipments fell at the fastest pace since early in the pandemic and also turned negative. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower but were still elevated, indicating strong inflationary pressures remain despite the slowdown in orders.
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area expanded only marginally in May, slowing to nearly stall speed with the weakest growth in two years, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphialast Thursday. The index for current general activity o plunged to 2.6 in May from 17.6 in April, the lowest reading since May 2020. Economists polled by Econoday had forecast a reading of 16.1. Unlike New York and Richmond, however, the indicators of demand were positive.
Inflationary pressures remained extremely high in the Philly Fed report. The prices paid index moved down to 78.9 from 84.6. The prices received index fell to 51.7 from 55.0. A special question this month asked firms to estimate future price inflation. The estimate for prices a year from now moved up to 6.5 percent from 5.5 percent in the February survey, the last time this question was asked. The estimate for annual inflation over the next ten years moved up to 3.5 percent from three percent.
A separate survey compiled by S&P Global showed a broad-based slowdown in economic growth in May but not an outright contraction. The S&P “flash” services index dropped to a three-month low of 53.5 in May from 55.6. The manufacturing index also fell to a three-month low of 57.5 from 59.2. Both were worse than expected. Any score over 50, however, indicates expansion. The composite index fell to 53.8, below even the low range of estimates.
The Richmond Fed report did have some positive news on supply chains. Vendor lead time and order backlogs decreased in May from the record highs earlier this year. In the Philly Fed survey, delivery times were close to unchanged and backlogs rose. The New York survey showed vendor lead times growing.
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