First Street Foundation today released the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model, the only nationwide, probabilistic, climate adjusted
The First Street Foundation has expanded its portfolio of peer reviewed, property specific, climate adjusted physical risk models with the launch of the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model, estimating the risk of wildfire on a property-by-property basis across the United States today, and up to 30 years into the future.
Another important and novel update included in the First Street Foundation Wildfire model is the reclassification of homes and other buildings from a “nonburnable” fuel type to a “burnable” fuel type. Typically, homes and other buildings are classified as nonburnable fuel types within LANDFIRE v2.0.0.
These weather data include hourly surface wind, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation information at the 2.5 km horizontal resolution. This weather data supports a wide range of possible weather conditions, not to recreate any particular wildfire events, but to drive the wildfire behavior model millions of times in a Monte Carlo simulation scheme to derive 2022 wildfire hazard estimates.
One of the primary indicators of where future wildfires will occur is informed through data on historical wildfire occurrences. These historical wildfires help to inform where wildfires may occur vis-à-vis the Fire Occurrence Database developed by the USDA Forest Service . An open source wildfire behavior model was used, ELMFIRE .
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