The talk about its reemergence as a key presidential battleground is misplaced.
The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President
For starters, ballot issues are not partisan elections, and keep in mind Democratic issue positions can be more popular than Democratic candidates. That was very likely the case in the Aug. 8 Issue 1 vote in Ohio, as a broad coalition of Democrats, independents, and even some Republican voters gave a big thumbs down to a Republican effort to neuter voters’ power to amend the state’s constitution.
Broadly speaking, the story of the Trump era in the Industrial North has been one of eroding Democratic presidential performance. Relative to the nation, only Illinois and Minnesota were roughly as Democratic in 2020 as they were in 2012. All of the other states in the region that Barack Obama carried at least once have gotten more Republican.
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