In this episode of IntelMattersPod, host MichaelJMorell speaks with former senior U.S. ambassador and Middle East envoy Dennis Ross about growing instability in the Middle East.
Intelligence MattersDENNIS ROSS: Mike, always a pleasure to be with you. Thank you.Dennis, as you know, I want to talk about Iran, particularly the Iranian nuclear program, but I want to ask you a couple of questions before we dive into that.
But it's, ironically, it's not just the issue of going and arresting those who might be carrying out acts of terror. It's also there's almost no law and order in the West Bank right now. So all Palestinians in the sense who live there are suffering from that.
In answer to your question, are we on the brink of a third intifada? My answer is no, because the broader Palestinian public is not joining in on this, partly because, A, they remember what happened, but B, they also have these jobs which they're not prepared to give up. And the second question is for those Palestinians who say they want the Palestinian Authority to go away, what do they want to replace it with?
On the other hand, if you have a vacuum there, I think Hamas has the greatest potential to take over and that's going to leave everybody worse off. Palestinians, first and foremost. But when it comes to having the override of the Supreme Court with a narrow majority of 61 out of 120, then you're talking about majoritarian rule, then you're talking about what is no longer a separation of powers. This in Israel is a parliamentary system, which means the executive already controls the parliament. It is there, the majority coalition there, they select the Prime Minister. So the only brake on the executive and legislative branch is the judiciary.
MICHAEL MORELL: So we're now we're going to make a slight transition toward Iran here. Dennis, your reaction to the Saudi-Iranian normalization and what it means for the region? I'm not sure how far that one can go, because the Saudis probably still respect sanctions that we impose. But I do think what you have is the two sides had a mutual interest and that's why they acted on it.
By the way, just one last thought. I don't see the fundamentals between the two having changed. Iran still wants to dominate the region. The Saudis aren't going to acquiesce to that. The Saudis would like a kind of secure environment in which to pursue their national transformation agenda. The Iranians may want a bit of a respite themselves, but as I said, the fundamentals haven't changed.
Iran's also produced a sphere of uranium and metal enriched to 60%. And as you know, a sphere of uranium metal enriched to 90% is literally what's at the heart, what's at the center of a nuclear weapon.
Now, as I said, they don't see any great risk in doing this. And my fear is that the Israelis look at this and say, 'What's the point where it becomes too late for us to do something about it?' Because they're not just enriching. The other thing they're doing is they're hardening all of their sites in their nuclear infrastructure, meaning these become harder and harder to destroy.
I think we need to make it clear while we continue to favor diplomacy as a way to resolve the challenge of their nuclear program, they need to understand, since they demonstrate no interest in diplomacy, they're putting us in a position where we increasingly will have to act and they need to understand they are jeopardizing their entire nuclear infrastructure.
The third thing, I think that the Iranians today not only believe that we won't act militarily, but we'll stop the Israelis from doing it. And one way to to counteract that impression is to provide the Israelis some things that they need if they were going to carry out an effective strike – for example, they have no forward basing. The hardening of the Iranian targets means they have to hit these targets multiple times and actually in the same spot.
I mean, look, I would take a page from the Israeli book. The Israelis do all sorts of things that they don't admit. I would be willing to, in the middle of the night, hit some of the training camps where these militias are trained, armed, you know, funded and the like. And these are actually in Iran itself. I wouldn't admit it because I don't want to put the Iranians in a position where they have no choice but to respond. But I want them to get the message that something has changed.
Now, in terms of timing, the other thing it does is it gives them an incentive to look for a diplomatic way out. And right now, they don't seem to have much of an interest in that. And at the same time, they don't seem to have much of a fear. First of all, they've become increasingly convinced that right now, unless something different is done, there is no diplomatic way out of this. And that means that they become more and more likely to feel they have no choice but to act militarily. So I do think it's different from them.
I'm suggesting exactly the opposite, that if you really don't want to be distracted, you need to focus very heavily on deterrence right now because it looks like we've lost that deterrent. There was a meeting a week ago of a high-level group with the U.S. and the Israelis talking about Iran. And here again, my sense of what was discussed there suggested the administration is moving now. There are things I think it needs to do beyond what they've done so far, which, again, I think we the declaratory policy needs to change. And I think even some of the provisions to the Israelis that I suggested would send a message.
DENNIS ROSS: I couldn't agree more. I think the Russians, the Chinese and the Iranians need to see behaviors that cross some thresholds on our part. It will certainly affect not only the Iranian calculus, but for sure I think it will affect the Chinese calculus as well. But Nasrallah, you know, this is – and then there are five others who came in through a tunnel that the Israelis also arrested.
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