Georgia thought its numbers were declining, so it could reopen. The problem is they weren’t.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp ended mandatory shelter-at-home orders on April 30. His reasoning for doing so was based in part on the apparent decline in COVID-19 cases reported by the Georgia Department of Public Health. But was Kemp right? Was the number of COVID-19 cases in Georgia really in a decline in the days leading up to the April 30 reopening? The data Kemp consulted to make his decision show an apparent decline.
To understand this gap, we must go back to April 29. On that date, case data for Georgia appears to show a peak on April 14, followed by a rapid decrease in new cases to nearly zero on April 29 . However, the period between April 15 and April 29 should be treated more cautiously. We know that there are lags between infection, confirmation, and reporting. With the benefit of hindsight, we can look at the data available in this same period—14 days later on May 13.
Given the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems clear that reopening criteria must consider the impacts of lagged data rather than treating the most current data as the basis for confirming a decline in cases. One way to deal with this could be to try to compare gaps in reported cases vs. final totals after reporting windows have passed. Such information could guide hindsight casting and provide improved estimates of real-time cases during reporting windows.
Moving forward, Georgia, and every other state, must prepare long-term strategies to minimize and contain the spread of COVID-19 while fostering safer economic reengagement. The vast majority of the population remains at risk of infection. Mask-wearing, strategic social distancing, approaches to test/trace/isolate, expanding testing to inform strategies, sustained public awareness campaigns—all of these are approaches we need to take now.
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