In its official forecast, NOAA said there’s a 60% chance of above-average activity this season across the Atlantic basin.
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for 13-19 named storms, with 6-10 of those becoming hurricanes and 3-6 of those becoming potentially destructive major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher.
Government forecasters say there is a 60% chance this year’s season will be above-average, with a 30% probability of a near-normal number of storms — which would be around 10-12 — while giving a mere 10% chance that this season will be below normal. Hurricane season, which doesn’t officially start until June 1, got off to an early start this year with last week’sThe NOAA forecast calling for an above-average season is mirrored across other pre-season predictions, such as the highly-regarded forecast released by, which calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
NOAA cites above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, as well as low vertical wind shear — which keeps storms from organizing — as key factors in the forecast. In the Eastern Pacific basin, on the other hand, NOAA says there is a 75% chance there will either be near- or below-normal storm formation, with it being common for conditions in one basin that may be favorable to be met withNOAA’s forecast is for activity throughout the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
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