Gold prices erode; technical patterns/ indicators suggest more weakness ahead. Long-end US real rates flirt into positive territory-historically correlated with weaker returns for gold. IG Client Sentiment Index shows near-term bearish bias for gold.
It thus remains the case that “the continued erosion in gold volatility throughout April has undercut gold prices’ ability to sustain a significant rally, a further drop will make any forthcoming upside attempts feckless.”Gold volatility was trading at 19.03 at the time this report was written. The 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold prices is -0.91 while the 20-day correlation is -0.32. One week ago, on April 19, the 5-day correlation was +0.47 and the 20-day correlation was -0.13.
Bearish momentum is gathering pace. Gold prices are below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs, and the daily EMA envelope is in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD issued a sell signal and is now below its signal line), while daily Slow Stochastics have entered oversold territory. A further drop towards the November 2021 swing high below 1880 appears like the next stop lower.
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