Gold’s message to investors: Sell in March and buy in September (via MktwHulbert)
Gold traders wondering about bullion’s 5% decline since its February high may not need to look any further than the calendar. That’s because gold appears to follow a six-months-on, six-months-off seasonal pattern. We’re right in the middle of the period of seasonal weakness, which likely could last through August.
Since 1973, when gold GCM9, +0.12% began freely trading, bullion has produced an annualized return of 15.0% from September through February, versus 2.7% from March through August. This difference is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.
In this case, the pattern has held up nicely. Since 2012, gold during the seasonally favorable six-month period has produced a return that is 10.1 annualized percentage points better than in the six-month unfavorable period. That’s almost as large as the difference in the pre-2012 sample. Don’t forget, however, that seasonal factors aren’t the only factor that makes the gold world go ‘round. Fundamental factors such as interest rates and inflation obviously play a role, as does market sentiment. So you shouldn’t trade into and out of gold solely on the basis of this seasonal pattern.
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