Goldman Sachs' economists see the odds of a recession at about 15% in the next 12 months, with the odds rising to 35% over the next 24 months.
There is a real chance that the U.S. economy is going to suffer a recession or “hard landing” in the next two years, according to the economic team at Goldman Sachs.
With inflation above 8% for the first time in forty years, Fed officials say they are laser focused on getting interest rates up. The Fed wants to try to engineer a soft landing, raising rates enough to cool inflation but not so much as to damage the labor market.On Monday, William Dudley, his predecessor at the helm of the New York Fed, said a hard landing was inevitable.In their note to clients, Goldman said it didn’t believe a recession was inevitable.
The main goal of the Fed’s plnned rate hikes is to slow wage growth from its recent 5%-6% pace to at least 4%-4.5%, Goldman said. That would help cool inflation close to the Fed’s 2% target in 2023 and 2024.
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