Republicans believe their luck in Nevada is poised to turn, viewing Tuesday’s primaries as the first step toward a fall sweep in their campaigns for Senate and the state’s four House seats.
Not since 2014 have Republicans experienced material success in Nevada, with Democrats getting the better of the GOP up and down the ballot in the three consecutive elections. That futility could end this November, GOP insiders insist, explaining a favorable political environment is on track to sink Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and topple Nevada’s three incumbent House Democrats.
Nevada is a perennial battleground. But Republicans have taken their lumps there in the 21st century, last winning the state’s Electoral College votes in 2004. The last GOP Senate win was in 2012, when appointed Sen. Dean Heller earned a full six-year term. Rep. Mark Amodei has kept northern Nevada’s Republican-friendly 2nd Congressional District in GOP hands, as did Heller before him for about 4.5 years.
The Laxalt campaign is dismissing Brown’s bravado, saying it is not based on the reality of what is actually happening. One veteran Republican operative in Nevada working on another statewide race lauded Brown for running a spirited campaign on track to perform better than initial predictions. But this operative agreed with the Laxalt campaign’s assessment of how the Senate primary would ultimately conclude.
The new House seat boundaries approved by Democrats in Carson City, Nevada, in decennial redistricting continue to favor the Democratic Party. But Nevada Republicans say that the newly configured 1st, 3rd, and 4th Districts are more competitive than they otherwise might have been because Democrats diluted the partisan strength of some of them to try and make all of them more hospitable to their party.
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