'Noise in human judgment is a serious problem, and it results in a great deal of inefficiency and unfairness.' Here's how we can stop it.
Judges, doctors, personnel committees, and stock portfolio managers make wildly different decisions based on the same evidence.
If your nephew is convicted of drug possession while on vacation, he may confront a judge who has especially harsh attitudes about drugs and end up having the book thrown at him; or he might luck into an easygoing judge who lets him off with a warning. The other huge part of the problem has been largely ignored – judgments are often very noisy. Ask ten different judges to suggest a sentence for your nephew, and you are likely to get widely divergent answers, as demonstrated in research by legal scholars. This is, of course, unfair.
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