The Heat pulled off an improbable upset in Game 1 against the Bucks after Giannis Antetokounmpo was sent to the locker room early with a busted back. Tonight, our best bet will be reliant on Jimmy Butler having a big night in Game 2.
Not only would a Giannis absence open the door for Miami to make some serious noise this series, it removes one half of the Bucks' daunting rim-protection duo, and a dynamic cover who can disrupt all kinds of activity in the mid range where Butler feasts.
Miami was content to launch the 3-point looks the Bucks gladly conceded in Game 1, but it also shot an absurd 60% from long range. That is absolutely f***ing not happening again, and the Heat will need to conjure offense in other ways from a limited arsenal. See, Tyler Herro broke his hand in Game 1, robbing an offense that ranked just 25th during the regular season of a guy effectively tied for second on the team in scoring. It's a huge loss, and one that's going to force far more touches on Butler as a go-to scorer who doubles as a quasi-lead playmaker in most Heat lineups. on high-usage opportunities to give playoff foes the business. Don't be surprised if he forces the issue a little extra tonight in a very high-leverage spot.
Butler's PRA market closed at 36.5 for Game 1, and there's obvious inflation baked in with Herro out and Giannis possibly joining him. But that Game 1 number was too low to begin with, given Butler's postseason tendencies . Yes, he had those weird disappearances against an elite Celtics defense early in last year's ECF, but he's never shied away when the chips are truly down.
I think math and opportunity-wise this is a great bet, with the added intangible factor of Butler being a complete madman in a crucial spot against an old playoff foe. Affiliate Disclosure
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