Analysis: A decline in Black turnout and Democratic support in the Midwest probably cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. This time could be different.
account for roughly 12 percent of eligible voters nationally, and they account for a substantial share of the vote in six of the seven states Trump carried by 5 points or less in 2016: Florida , Georgia , Michigan , North Carolina , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
Amping up African American enthusiasm could pay particular dividends for Biden in Wisconsin, where the Clinton campaign spent scant resources and turnout in Milwaukee plummeted. But even in states like Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where Black turnout was more robust, there were 397,000, 488,000 and 370,000 eligible Black voters, respectively, who failed to turn out last time.
Harris never gained much traction with either of these groups — or really any group — in the 2020 primaries. But limited polling data in the past month shows that Harris, 55, who is more than two decades younger than the 77-year-old Biden, could marginally benefit him.found that Harris had a similar net favorability among 18-to-29-year-old voters to Biden , and a higher net favorability among 35-to-44-year-old voters than Biden .
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