Analysis: A decline in Black turnout and Democratic support in the Midwest probably cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. This time could be different.
It's too early to tell how much Joe Biden's selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden's ability to win back key battleground states.
African American voters account for roughly 12 percent of eligible voters nationally, and they account for a substantial share of the vote in six of the seven states Trump carried by 5 points or less in 2016: Florida , Georgia , Michigan , North Carolina , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin . If Biden had a glaring weakness in the primaries, it was with young voters, who strongly backed Bernie Sanders. And if there's one group where turnout dropped precipitously between the Obama era and 2016, it's younger voters of color.
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