Despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, the market is unlikely to “crash.”
that “the markets would crash” if he were impeached. Last year he said, “everybody would be very poor” if he was removed from office.
So far the stock market has been largely unfazed by impeachment headlines: The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day down slightly, by 0.30%. But since Monday’s open, the index has actually gained 0.14%. The S&P 500, on the other hand, fell 0.24% on Thursday and is now down 0.17% for the week.
Despite Trump’s claims, historical stock market data would suggest otherwise: “That’s something investors need to keep in mind,” says Mark Freeman, chief investment officer at Sororro Asset Management. “Knee-jerk reactions” in the market to impeachment talk are unlikely. Impeachment headlines will add pressure on Trump to complete a trade deal—even if a limited one—with China before his 2020 bid for reelection. “You only want to fight so many battles,” Freeman says.
There’s also the key consideration of whether Trump will be impeached or removed from office. As Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, points out, this is a “critical difference” for the market: Stocks plunged when Nixon resigned, while the market soared when Clinton was impeached.
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