As betting market Predictit currently gives a 90% chance for Republicans winning the House and about a two-in-three chance for the GOP getting control of the Senate, analysts forecast what a divided Washington could mean for various sectors.
One poll this month found record interest in the 2022 midterm elections, which are now less than two weeks away.
Republican campaigns have seized on raging inflation, including elevated prices for gasoline RB00, -0.58% and other fuels, while Democrats have focused on issues such as abortion rights. Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst for Raymond James, stresses that his team’s research shows that since 1946 the S&P 500 SPX, +2.46% stock index has always been higher 12 months after a midterm election.“100% of the time, 12 months after the midterms, the S&P 500 is up — and most of that move is in a three- to six-month period after the midterms.”
The most important issue in the near term for the energy sector, according to Mills, is whether Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s permitting package gets enacted after foundering in September. The moderate West Virginia lawmaker is aiming to speed permits for natural-gas NG00, +1.75% pipelines and other energy projects.
The Evercore analyst also said there could be action next year on requirements for North American battery sourcing in Democrats’ big climate, healthcare and tax package, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. The package included a revamped $7,500 tax credit for EVs, but South Korean auto maker Hyundai 005380, +1.23% and other car companies have objected to the credit’s sourcing requirements and would benefit from delays for those rules.
“So I think that’s mostly the landscape in 2023 — with some headlines, but not a lot of genuine risks to the sector,” the Evercore analyst said, referring to the healthcare sector.