The setup for junk bonds doesn’t look promising after the recent rally, according to Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management division.
High-yield credit has recently rallied, but the setup for junk bonds doesn’t look promising, according to Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management division.
High-yield debt’s outperformance of investment-grade bonds historically has followed the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S., according to the note. Shalett highlighted a chart in the report suggesting that high-yield is “getting ahead of itself.” Meanwhile, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has gained 5.4% on a total return basis since the end of June through Friday, beating the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF’s 1.2% return, FactSet data show. High-yield debt is rated below investment grade, or in so-called junk territory.
This year, the S&P 500 has dropped 13.3% on a total return basis through Friday, while the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF was down 9.1% and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF tanked 15.1% over the same period, according to FactSet data.
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