Every No. 1 overall pick appears poised for success on draft day. But the history of No. 1 overall pick QBs isn’t promising. NFLDraft | KeepPounding
At the very least, that’s what the odds would say. Since the beginning of the Super Bowl era, 26 different quarterbacks have been selected with the first overall pick in the NFL draft. There’s no exact way to calculate a player’s value—try as all-in-one metrics may—and because of that shortcoming, we’ll never have a perfect agreement on how to rank players.
With Young all but guaranteed to hear his name called first on Thursday night and become the 27th first-overall quarterback selection in NFL history, I tiered each of his 26 predecessors into one of six categories of success in order to get a better grip on the realistic expectations we should have for the 5-foot-10 gunslinger from Alabama.
More important than the minutiae of those arguments is which tiers define success in the NFL, and how often we should expect that level of success from the No. 1 pick. Let’s evaluate generously and say that every guy in the first four tiers—from Peyton Manning to Trevor Lawrence—is a success.
The two most important comparison points for Young on this list are exactly who you think they are—Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Both quarterbacks were taken in recent years despite similar concerns over their size, yet impressed enough people with their Heisman-level production at the college level that caution was thrown to the wind.
. It’s unfair to place expectations of being a generational talent on nearly anyone. It’s the whole reason guys like LeBron James or Peyton Manning have become so beloved or adored in their respective sports—they were billed as one-of-a-kind talents who somehow turned out to be even greater than what was originally promised.
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