Republicans are likely to pick up three to four House seats from redistricting advantages after a series of recent breakthrough victories, bolstering their already favorable prospects in this midterm election cycle.
That's a major change from early April, when Democrats were on track to pick up one or two seats. Republicans dealt a titanic blow to that edge with a crucial court victory in New York Wednesday and an aggressive, GOP-friendly map enacted in Florida last week."NY's top court has turned Dems' 2022 House outlook from terrible to potentially horrific.
The New York State Court of Appeals shattered that advantage Wednesday when it tossed out the map and ordered the adoption of a more neutral plan, which could give the GOP three to five more seats than the party likely would have had under the prior map. Because the ruling came from the highest court in the state, it will be difficult to overturn.
Not all of the recent redistricting news has been grim for Democrats. On Monday, the party procured a victory in Kansas that is likely to be upheld by a higher court, throwing out a GOP-friendly map. As a result, Democrats will likely preserve a seat held by Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids that the Republican map undermined.
Republicans are also at risk of shooting themselves in the foot in New Hampshire and Missouri. The two states have failed to enact a new congressional map so far, despite total Republican control of the process, because of an internal party brawl over how aggressive they should be on apportionment. As a result, redistricting in both states is at risk of being kicked to the courts, which will likely be more favorable to Democrats than the traditional process.
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