How a New Conservative Justice Could Affect the Supreme Court

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How a New Conservative Justice Could Affect the Supreme Court
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A third Supreme Court confirmation during Donald Trump's presidency would change a narrow conservative edge to a comfortable majority. Here's what that could mean for key issues like abortion and health care

Justice Ginsburg will be missed even more if Trump gets to replace her successor. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images Just days after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and President Trump’s predictable but still shocking announcement that he will attempt to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before Election Day , most of the commentary is understandably about the odds of that actually happening.

Now it’s possible that Democrats will take over the White House and the Senate in January and decide to counteract a last-second Trump appointment by expanding the size of the Supreme Court and then filling new vacancies. Barring that contingency, or a new vacancy created by the death or retirement of one of the conservative justices in the not-so-distant future, a third Trump confirmation will change a narrow conservative edge to a comfortable majority.

Abortion Without any doubt, eroding and ultimately overturning a federal constitutional right to an abortion is the most passionately held goal of the conservative legal movement and its powerful grassroots base in the anti-abortion movement. It is broadly accepted that in the latest Supreme Court case on the subject, June Medical Services LLC v.

Health Care A test nearly as immediate as the abortion decision will come early in the Court’s October 2020 term as it hears oral arguments on California v. Texas, a case aimed at killing the Affordable Care Act. Julie Rovner explains how the case got to SCOTUS: [W]ithout Ginsburg, the case could wind up in a 4-4 tie, even if Roberts supports the law’s constitutionality. That could let the lower-court ruling stand, although it would not be binding on other courts outside the 5th Circuit.The court could also put off the arguments or, if the Republican Senate replaces Ginsburg with another conservative justice before arguments are heard, Republicans could secure a 5-4 ruling against the law.

But opponents of LGBTQ rights may take cheer from the likelihood that Ginsburg’s replacement will increase the conservative majority’s already strong inclination to expand both constitutional and statutory “religious liberty” rights to discriminate in situations where the believer is citing a faith principle or the prerogatives of a religious institution to justify discriminatory behavior.

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