In January investors thought the Fed would raise interest rates to just 0.75% by the end of the year. Expectations have since shifted dramatically
business of financial markets is the business of prediction. But beyond predicting the future, the markets also guide decisions about allocating resources today. Financial conditions tighten or loosen as expectations change. For many market actors, expectations can matter as much as, or even more than, reality.
The activities of the banks that run on expectations—conducted by the slick investment bankers who advise on major corporate investments, like mergers and acquisitions, and help firms go public or issue debt—had a torrid quarter. Investment-banking revenues plunged by 41%, year on year, at Goldman, by 61% at JPMorgan and by 55% at Morgan Stanley. Investment bankers who underwrite loans for deals have had a particularly rough time.
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