Government buildings, power-stations and even airports in Israel could be targeted – and risk engulfing the entire region in violence
Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo on Thursday could be diplomats’ last chance to avert a potentially disastrous retaliatory strike on Israel by Iran and its proxies.
Hardline Iranian parliamentarian Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani claimed on 10 August that Iran could conduct a series of attacks targeting Israel over three or four days. Ardestani also claimed thatBut it’s possible Ardestani might have said this to set conditions for Iran to be able to blame a potential attack on Israel on the Israeli government’s failure to agree to a ceasefire.
Many pundits have said that Iran would seek to avoid civilian targets as it did on 13 April. But Bar-Joseph says the distinction “is not always that simple”.He notes that threats have been made against the Israel Defence Forces central command and Ministry of Defence complex in the middle of Tel Aviv, which is surrounded by shops, high-rises and busy roads.
Furthermore, Hezbollan’s arsenal is thought to be enormous, with 150,000 missiles, of which 80,000 could hit Tel Aviv with payloads of over 250kg. Bar Joseph says Israel’s missile defence systems would be exhausted in just two days if it faced a full onslaught from across the Lebanese border. “The US has done a fairly good job with a dual strategy of accommodation or engagement and coercion or deterrence to give Iran very few options to really escalate,” he says.
“So in this kind of context, sanctions relief is everything, engagement in the West is probably the primary mission of the new Iranian president. And he’s got the endorsement from the deep state from the supreme leader to do that.”
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