How Biden wallops Trump via rickjnewman
First, the disclaimer: Forecasts can be wrong, as everybody learned from Donald Trump’s startling win in the 2016 president election. No prediction is bulletproof.
Widespread business shutdowns meant to stop the spread of the coronavirus have caused the loss of 37 million jobs since the end of March – the biggest drop in employment since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Some of those layoffs are temporary, but the unemployment rate, now 14.7%, will still probably be around 10% on Election Day. That’s three times higher than it was before the virus, and comparable to the worst period of the last recession, which began in 2007.
The outcome would give Biden 65% of the popular vote, and Trump just 35%. Biden would win the electoral vote 328 – 210, the worst womping of an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, 48% to 46%, but swing state victories gave him a 306-232 electoral college win. The Oxford model predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win, but not Trump’s electoral college margin.
Turnout is crucial in elections, and depressed Democrat turnout—because of the coronavirus, lack of enthusiasm for Biden or some other reason—would help Trump. High Democratic turnout, on the other hand, could generate an ever more decisive Biden win. In the Oxford model, if Democrat turnout is as strong as it was in 2008, when voters sent Barack Obama to the White House, Biden would win Florida, Texas and other traditionally red states, for a 434 – 104 electoral college stampede.
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