Nearly half of Americans who support Joe Biden plan to vote by mail rather than in person on election day, compared with just one in ten backers of President Donald Trump
on the 245-year-old organisation. As recently as 2018, according to polls analysed by the researchers, 40% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans supported postal voting, a difference of just 15 percentage points. By May, this gap had widened nearly four-fold .
To better understand this disparity, the authors conducted their own surveys. They found that in April, Republicans who were worried about the coronavirus were ten percentage points more likely to support postal voting than those who paid the virus little mind. By May, after weeks of Mr Trump calling postal ballots “rigged” and prone to voter fraud, support among Republicans untroubled by covid-19 had fallen even further . The pattern was not present for Democrats or independents.
This year public support for postal voting is higher than ever before. And yet the partisan split has the potential to harm both parties. If the postal service’s financial woes persist—it lost $4.5bn in the first quarter alone—delays in the delivery of ballot papers may disproportionately hurt the Democratic vote. If Trump supporters remain suspicious of the post, but grow more fearful of venturing out to cast their votes in person, Republicans could be harmed, too.
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