When it comes to coronavirus infections, the third time is not the charm. What is?
has antibodies against the four other coronaviruses that afflict humans, and they generally cause only mild cold symptoms.) The researchers followed ten healthy individuals for decades and found that, although reinfections can occur as soon as six months after a prior infection, the median time to reinfection was around three years. “And that’s forinfection,” Gordon said. “My best guess would be—and this is just a guess—that symptomaticinfections will eventually occur every five years or so.
There are some caveats. The study has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, and many veterans are older men with multiple medical conditions, so they have a higher level of risk than the general population. It’s also possible that people who get reinfected are somehow dissimilar from those who don’t. Al-Aly was careful to note that a second infection isn’t necessarily worse than a first one—rather, that it’s worse than not getting reinfected at all.
Recently, I called Florian Krammer, the Mount Sinai virologist, and outlined a pessimistic scenario: a future in whichreinfections are common, dangerous, and inevitable. “When you say it like that, it sounds very bad,” Krammer admitted. “But I actually don’t see it that way.” There’s nothing special about the coronavirus, he argued. Yes,-CoV-2 caused a global pandemic, but he thinks that was primarily because of its novelty.
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