'A whole host of things happened that the polls would not have caught,' said one pollster about the 2016 election.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence greet each other during a 9/11 memorial service at the National September 11 Memorial and Museum on September 11, 2020 in New York City.Miringoff called forecaster models and polls"two very different animals." The former is predictive, while the latter offers a single snapshot of where the electorate is at a specific point in time.
The 2016 election, one of the most volatile contests in U.S. history, had a level of uncertainty that went beyond what polls are able to provide. Those factors included a high number of undecided voters going into the final weeks of the election, an irregularly high number of voters considering a third-party candidate, and a high number of Clinton supporters who ended up staying home.
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