The year 2020 has left many Wall Street strategists scrambling to make sense of the U.S. stock market, with forecasters surprised by the spectacular crash in late February and March and rally over the past few months
, in a response to Reuters in May, said its forecasts are made with the best information it has available at the time and that it noted in research early in the year that a significant change in circumstances relating to coronavirus would alter its forecasts. In response to additional questions from Reuters in late September, the bank declined further comment.The market’s rebound this year comes as the economy and public health continue to feel the devastating effects of the pandemic.
Some of the strategists’ predictions have proved to be correct. JPMorgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, for example, did not cut his initial year-end S&P 500 target of 3,400 during the crash, arguing that the selloff was temporary and policy response would outlast the impact of COVID-19. The target was raised to 3,600 on September 11.
At Goldman Sachs, strategists led by David Kostin cut their S&P 500 2020 earnings per share target three times in 30 days and price target twice during the market downdraft of late February and March. When the market started to rally, they held fire even as the S&P 500 surpassed their year-end target of 3,000, and finally raised it to 3,600 in August.
Between Jan. 1 and Feb. 19, when the market first peaked this year, Wall Street’s consensus estimate for the S&P 500’s 2020 earnings per share was reduced by 0.9%, according to the data.
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