Stocks are shrugging it off, but an impeachment of President Trump could impact other events for markets, like the trade war and election.
Strategas policy analysts Dan Clifton said on, the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada will probably now be at even more risk, since Democrats are unlikely to agree to it. But there could be a swifter movement on China, and Trump now is more likely to accept a smaller deal, putting aside some of the thornier issues. That would be good for industrial stocks, semiconductors and those assets impacted by a positive trade outcome, like energy and other commodities.
"Sure, there was a decline of 20% at one point in between, but that was due to the Russia Crisis and the collapse of Long-Term Capital rather than anything to do with what was going on in the White House," notes Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey. "Treasury yield rose about 50bps in less than two months from the date Mr. Clinton was impeached to the day the Senate acquitted him. A 50bps move seems too aggressive in the 2019 world of low yields, but we think a 20-25bps move could happen," noted Schumacher.
The J.P. Morgan analysts said further impacts on markets will be determined by what happens in three 2020 races for the White House, Senate and House, and the impeachment process could influence that depending on what happens.
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