OPINION: Do you think the U.S. economy will be in a better place in 12 to 18 months? That question will determine how you should invest your money.
As the clock struck midnight on New Year’s Eve last December, many were excited about the prospect of living through another “Roaring ’20s.” With the promise of prosperity stretching into the new decade, the future seemed golden.Heightened uncertainty has divided Wall Street strategists, with bears doubting the sustainability of the rising stock market and bulls pointing to more than $3 trillion in market stimulus as a reason investors shouldn’t try to “fight the Fed.
Elevated risk of a near-term policy mistake One of the few positive surprises of 2020 was that the U.S. Congress overcame partisan politics to ease the financial pain for many Americans with a substantial boost to unemployment benefits. While Congress is debating additional stimulus measures, it seems likely that these enhanced benefits will be reduced.
Combined with the continuing struggles to contain COVID-19, we believe this could weaken the pace of the recovery and financial markets in the second half of this year. As such, Citi’s S&P 500 SPX, +0.71% target for year-end 2020 is below today’s levels at 2,900.
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