The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) will leave key interest rates unchanged next Tuesday, economists said in a Reuters poll, after government bond purchases launched this month sent longer yields plunging.
All 16 economists in the May 18-20 survey said the bank would leave its base rate HUINT=ECI at 0.9%. Twelve analysts also gave a forecast for the overnight deposit rate HUODPO=ECI, saying it would remain at -0.05%.
Hungarian 10-year yields have fallen by 50 basis points since the NBH launched bond purchases in early May, while the forint EURHUF=D3 is trading around one-week highs of 350 per euro as central Europe’s economies gradually emerge from months-long lockdowns triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. Analysts expect the economy to shrink by 4.6% this year, much worse than the government’s recently downgraded forecast of a 3% downturn, while the budget deficit is seen widening to 4.5% of economic output, also above the government’s target.
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