Voters in the postindustrial Midwest say Trump has abandoned them, but the left’s “hair-on-fire strategy” isn’t inspiring much optimism, either
I keep coming back to Youngstown, despite the occasional carping about Rust Belt voyeurism, because national elections can be won and lost in this part of the country —not all of them, to be sure, but enough to make it matter. Democrats don’t seem to particularly like that fact, and many seem to want to wish it away, or at least to chalk the voting shifts here up to racism, or ignorance or a cultural atavism.
And that is a shame, because Trump is certainly not invulnerable in Ohio. New, unreleased polling data from Morning Consult shows that Trump’s support in Ohio has eroded substantially over time, from a net positive of 14 points in January 2017 to a negative 5 points in September 2019, and even internal Trump campaign polls reportedly show him trailing badly to Joe Biden, at least.
was an Obama–Trump voter, and he is ready to listen to the Democratic candidates this time around. Over the last three years, he has witnessed the continuing economic decline of the area, and the attendant costs of bankruptcy, divorce, and addiction. He told me the story of a neighbor, a line worker at Lordstown, who was relocated by GM to Missouri. Unable to sell his house in Ohio and move his family, he fell into despair, ultimately taking his own life.
In those broken promises are the opportunities for the Democrats in places like Youngstown. Morning Consult, also in new data, reports that only 27% of self-described independents think that President Trump has done well enough to deserve reelection. It’s certainly a promising number, but it doesn’t necessarily equate to Democratic support next year.
The promise of politics here is that someone might finally stop this two-generation run of Black Mondays. Trump, despite his boastfulness, has not. That opens the door for Democrats, at least a crack, but they will have to convince voters here that they care more about saving jobs than they do about impeachment, gun control, or anything else.
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