The biggest concern is that Republicans will provoke a crisis by refusing to increase America’s debt ceiling
fringe of the House Republicans may push for the president’s impeachment. None of this is likely to amount to much of anything, since the Democrat-controlled Senate will, as a matter of course, reject it all. Still, the theatrics of divided government will have important repercussions, especially for the economy.
In theory the debt ceiling ought to be a non-issue. It does not authorise new spending; it simply lets the government pay for what Congress has already approved. For decades raising the ceiling was a pro forma, technocratic decision. But in 2011 a debt-limit showdown between Barack Obama’s administration and a Republican-majority House brought America close to the fiscal precipice, and there were smaller echoes of that in clashes in 2013 and again in 2021.
Even without the debt hijinks, the basic matter of budgeting is sure to prove contentious. The first date to watch is December 16th, when the current arrangement to fund the government expires. Without a successor arrangement, a government shutdown would be triggered. That is likely to be averted this time around, given that the deadline comes during the lame-duck session of Congress—that is, the post-election period before the new Congress is seated.
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